Health forecasts: added value for health system
Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and health care capacity (i.e. hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.
It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations.
The focus of health forecasting
The focus of a health forecast relates to the central targeted issue that is being forecast. This is with reference to the basic unit of the health outcome measure that is being forecast. One focus of health forecasting is to predict population health outcome in terms of the number of events occurring within a space of time; for example, the forecasting of life expectancy and health expectancies. Another focus is to determine the course of an ailment for a particular individual, which is usually referred to as prognosis. These two categories are related to how the data is aggregated in health forecasting.
Data aggregation and accuracy of health forecasting
Forecasting a health condition or situation for a population aggregate of a particular problem, or for groups of the same family, presents a lesser challenge than doing so for an individual case. This is because by pooling the variances of the population-related factors (which are usually broad and well known), the behavior of the aggregated data can have very stable characteristics, even when the individuals within exhibit high degrees of randomness. It is therefore easier to obtain a higher degree of accuracy in forecasting specific health events when using pooled population data versus data for specific individuals.
Horizons of health forecasting
A health forecasting horizon refers to the range of the period the forecast is intended to cover. The demand for a health forecast determines the forecast horizon (range), and this could be in a short, medium or long term. These horizons are, however, not fixed for all situations, but rather may be defined in relation to the qualitative indicator being forecast (e.g. life expectancy), as well as its weighting over an extended time period. Major population health issues, such as life expectancy or future health expectancies, or the forecasting of some chronic disease prevalence (i.e. obesity and diabetes) in large populations, are often forecast with a long range. Short-range and medium-range health forecasts are applicable to routine health service uptake (e.g. hospital visits), and some chronic disease exacerbations resulting from environmental exposures. The choice of a long-range, medium-range, or short-range forecast is critical in developing a forecast as health forecasting horizons also have applications in the planning of health care service deliveries.
The value of health forecasting in health services provision
Health service(s) is (are) the most important component of any health system. The World Health Organisation (WHO), reports that effective health service delivery requires some key resources including information, finance, equipment, drugs and well motivated staff. Given the ever-increasing demand for both the coverage and quality of health care services, health service delivery institutions and service providers struggle to tackle situations of excess demand particularly associated with peak events. This is because front-line health delivery services and providers are not usually adequately informed and do not have adequate resources to meet the needs of a “higher than normal” demand for health care. Hence, improving the access, coverage and quality of health services depends on the ways these services are pre-informed, organised and managed. Health forecasting services enable both individuals and service providers to anticipate situations, and hence take the necessary steps to manage peak or extreme events.
References
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3541816/
